A major Indiana-based insurance company reports unprecedented 40 percent death-rate increases industry-wide among working-age Americans in 2021 compared to pre-pandemic data.
Thank you for these comments. The questions raised and data analysis are first-rate. Please feel free to email me at marybethpf@aol.com. This is an issue that must be addressed by the CDC and other public health authorities.
Hi Mary Beth, a few of us have been tracking the excess non-CV mortality by age and place of death for some time. Frankly, I'm surprised it took insurance so long to see the signal. It was clear a year-and-a-half ago. The same patter is going on U25 as well. On Twitter, look for @EthicalSkeptic and myself @ProfessorAkston. I sent you an email with some links.
The presentation was made on December 30th by the Chamber of Commerce and Indiana Hospital Association. I watched the video from minute 21 where the CEO from this report prefaced his mortality data with his own business concern that he needs to get his employees back in the office, but the vaccinated employees don't want to share space with unvaccinated employees.
I've seen some speculation on line that the death increase has some correlation with vaccine rollout and might be a cause. If true, the insurance guy could be making a huge mistake since he suggested they're considering hiking rates for businesses located in low vaccinated counties. He also made it clear that his company is pushing for a fully vaccinated staff and it seemed that the company was jumping to the conclusion that unvaccinated people were the only possible source for this increase - that could end up being a very costly error!
Regarding the data, if you remove all the deaths attributed by the CDC as covid related, you still have a 20% increase in NON-COVID DEATHS for the working age population of their census. It's truly remarkable that we haven't launched an all-out assault on insurance data to either corroborate or contradict what would potentially be the largest mass casualty this country, and possibly the world, has ever seen!
This is a great post, Mary Pat. Thank you. How do you get to trends in things like stroke and heart attack? Given the delay in finalizing causes that you discuss, there's still a lot we don't know about the third-quarter increase in deaths. I would like more on the "weird-looking" OD trends...
Let's recall that Mr Davison, the CEO of the life insurance company did also say that they were seeing at first, an increase in short term disability, then an increase in claims for long term disability.
The drug OD hypothesis may explain some of the deaths but let's recall that the deaths AND the disability claims that Davison is talking about is for people that work for companies that have group insurance benefits. Mostly good paying jobs I would think.
I would also assume that this cohort of people would have a generally lower rate of opioid addiction.
Does drug OD cause short term and long term disability?
The data needed is: For ALL group insurance claims for death benefits AND disability, both long term and short term, what is the vaxx status of the claimant?
Overlay that data and you will have your answer.
Davison also said they were going to hike premiums for employers based in counties with LOW VAXX RATES! He's already made up his mind that this is because of people who refuse the shot!!
Perhaps not surprising Davison followed the (uninformed) battle cry: "It's a pandemic of the unvaxxed!" It's good to pull this data apart 6 ways to Sunday, since there is so much poor and manipulated data out there, including in CDC's data about COVID deaths and VAERS under-reporting, and more.
Does anyone know if a plan has been put in place to conduct post mortems for people who die within a certain time of getting vaccinated ? Anywhere in the world ?
Anyone that dies within two weeks of getting the second shot is considered to be unvaccinated. I'm not aware of anyone or any agency that is distinguishing vaxed, unvaxed, and partially vaxed.
Post mortems would provide more accurate data on what percentage of people had died from vaccine injury . We could then make an informed decision on whether or not to suspend vaccinations .
The spike protein is in both the virus and the shots. We shouldn't be too quick to blame the virus for everything, when the shots produce orders of magnitude more of the toxic spikes...The spikes produce a number of similar symptoms, including blood clots, in both virus and vax.
The overwhelming majority of people who die from drug overdoses are not life or health insured. Mary Pat's tables are not what the Indiana based insurance company is drawing from.
Some of the unhappiest people I know work in high paying jobs with great benefits. They get locked in a golden set of handcuffs that they can't get out of because they want the lifestyle that high pay brings but it doesn't make them happy. also, they can afford the drugs. I work at a place like that with 90 employees. We just had a 30something die of exactly this, OD.
But didn’t they have these jobs and golden handcuffs prior to the surge of excess deaths in 2021? And do you not think, since there is a 140-145% jump in EXCESS deaths including heart, cancer, blood clots and even accidents that there is some other driving force besides work burdens? Like, idk, maybe some poorly studied, long term data-deficient, highly
controversial medical treatment given to millions? Maybe?
I could not comment on your post (non-subscriber) so I will post here.
The excess mortality has been observed in Germany and many countries. A November German study shows a correlation of +.31 in excess mortality and vaccination rate observed in 16 countries in the study.
Also, your hypothesis is just that without vaccination status of the diseased. Why is no one interested to find out including our CDC and FDA? Inconvenient truth?
Thanks for the informative and empathetic post Mary Pat!
Genuine health and well-being at both the individual and societal level is influenced by an indescribably complex web of behaviors, beliefs and circumstances. It really is sad how much many of us have narrowed our focus these past 2 years to looking at public health through the lens of one tiny little virus. In both 2020 and 2021, overdose deaths outnumbered death from COVID-19 where I live, (British Columbia), and I, like you, know this problem won't end with the pandemic.
I really think it's time to reel back much of the collective energy we're spending locking down the economy or hunting down the last handfuls of "vaccine hesitant" people, and re-deploy it toward solving the countless other larger problems we've all but ignored the past 2 years.
COVID, and Overdoses need to be counted before jumping to conclusions that its vaccine related health issues.
Also this pandemic has delayed health treatments and preventative care, increased depression, lowered physical activity, increase overeating, gaining weight, higher alcohol consumption, violent crime, and even speeding in cars. All of these also increased in 20/21
These deaths affect OneAmerica's bottom line directly, so internally they are digging and I suspect they know what's causing them. I also suspect that they know good and well that the vaccines are not protecting anyone. If so, they will never say so publicly. As Dr. Malone said, this is a huge public policy failure. OneAmerica is a large corporation with a whole cadre of lawyers. They're not going to tell us the whole truth.
Jan 5, 2022·edited Jan 5, 2022Liked by Mary Beth Pfeiffer
Keep an eye out maybe on the Australian data. Interesting as very little Covid so that effect is controlled for. Not seeing much of a signal for the moment, and what there is seems to be mostly cancer and dementia. Only consolidated through end October though. You can download a breakdown by age group, from what I can see the excess mortality is largely in the 65+ group. I suppose it may be imputable to missed cancer diagnoses, dementia due to loneliness, and inactivity. Not that that isn't bad enough (and precisely affects the same groups as are vulnerable to Covid). It would be good though to have a couple more months of data.
Mary Beth, but that is not the conclusion if you watch Scott Davison' video. At the point where he started talking about premium load, he was hinting that they are blaming it on the unjabbed. "Most of us in the industry are starting to target and to add a premium loads onto employers that are based in counties that have low vaccination rates. It's just typically what we would do for underwriting when you have a risk factor like that." I think he has his blinders on and drew the wrong conclusion, but until they realize the common denominator, I am afraid they will continue to blame and penalize the wrong party.
"The high death rate from OneAmerica data compared to general population data in Indiana show that heavily vaccinated workers are dying from the vaccines and/or a lack of early COVID treatment....We have a massive failure of public heath policy in the USA." - Dr. Robert W. Malone, MD, 1/3/22
So this 50,600 figure does not even resemble the Q3 deaths for 18 to 64 year olds. I don't have a quick way of determining this, but the figure of 25% of deaths being in this age group sounds reasonable. Guesstimating 12,750 deaths in that age group, than the figures Mary Beth Pfeiffer quoted do look more alarming, and compatible with the video statements of Scott Davison. (BTW, he gave me the impression that he knows what he is talking about.)
(In the top graph at: https://www.usmortality.com, turn off Smooth and turn on Maximize. Using the cursor on the graph, the excess deaths per week peak at 19,419 on week 35 at the end of August to start of September.)
In the figures apparently supplied by OneAmerica, 250,000 18-64 deaths in Q4 exceeds the 2019 figure of 172,000 by 78,000, which is 45.3% higher. So far, this accords with Scott Davison's statements.
My guesstimate of 12,750 COVID-19 deaths is just 16.3% of this 78,000. That accords with his statements too - that the official COVID-19 deaths are a small fraction of the supposed 78,000 excess deaths in this quarter in this age range.
Some of the remaining ~~83% of these 78,000 deaths are surely due to longer-term effects of COVID-19, but it would be surprising if this was more than a small fraction of the ~~12,750 deaths. This leaves a large unexplained gap. Scott Davison was not thinking at all that these might be caused by vaccination. He seems to assume that they are mainly a result of severe COVID-19 - and severe symptoms without death scales in rough proportion to deaths in any population. He and his underwriting colleagues assume, not unreasonably, that deaths and so severity and later deaths are in inverse proportion to vaccination rates. (In the criminally egregious absence of proper 50 ng/mL 25-hydroxvitamin D levels and banning of early treatments, vaccination does very significantly reduce severity and deaths.)
What we really need is age-stratified death information, ideally with individual vaccination and prior COVID-19 illness data. That may not be available, so we might be able to get monthly excess deaths, in some band of ages, and then subtract official COVID-19 deaths, to leave the unexplained deaths we suspect were caused in large part by vaccination. Then we need to get that data, by month, ideally state-by-state, and see how it correlates with 1st, 2nd and subsequent COVID-19 vaccine injections.
Please remember that these so-called vaccines, even if they worked as well and were as safe as claimed, would still be a distant third best way to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, after population wide vitamin D supplementation to attain at least the 50 ng/ml 25-hydroxyvitamin D level the immune system needs to function (most people have 1/2 to 1/10th of this) and, in second place, multiple early treatments. Please see https://nutritionmatters.substack.com and https://vitamindstopscovid.info .
I suppose these excess claims are covered to a large extent by reinsurance. It will be interesting to see what the big global reinsurers have to say in their annual filings because they won't be able to offset losses given that this is a symmetric shock in all relevant jurisdictions.
"During the third quarter of 2021, the CDC reported approximately 50,600 deaths in the 18-64 age group were due to COVID, while they reported 252,000 deaths overall during that same period for the 18-64 age group.
The CDC defines only those individuals where COVID is listed on the death certificate as a cause/contributing factor in death in that total, but does not include other deaths which may be linked to co-morbidities or other COVID-19 influenced factors (delay in seeking medical care, inability to access medical care, etc.)."
If someone has Covid, then dies from a blood clot caused in the aftermath of Covid 2 month later, that is not listed as a Covid death. So in other words, more of the deaths were probably from Covid than counted. I work in a hospital and I see this every day.
"One of our business is we offer group life and disability insurance to employers. We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have ever seen in the history of this business. Not just at OneAmerica - the data is consistent across every player in that business.
"This is primarily working age people, 18 to 64, that are in employers like those employers on the screen here.
"What we saw just in 3rd quarter - and we saw it continue into 4th quarter - is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic.
"Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a 3 sigma [3 standard deviations] or a 1 in 200 year would be a 10% increase over pre-pandemic. So 40% is just unheard of.
"So what the data is showing us is that the deaths which are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working age people from the pandemic. It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge, numbers.
"We are also seeing an uptick in disability claims. At first it was short-term disability claims and now we are seeing long-term disability, whether it is long-COVID, whether people haven't been able to get the healthcare they need because the hospitals were overrun.
"For OneAmercia, we expect the costs of this will be well over 100 million dollars - and this is our smallest business. So it is having a huge impact on that.
"Those costs will trickle towards other employers, because premiums are starting to go up - so it will cost more for employers. Most of us in the industry are starting to target and add premium loads on employers who are based in counties which have low vaccination rates. Its typically what we would in underwriting when we have a risk factor like that.
"There is also going to be higher costs on employers due to greater absences, particularly at a time when there is low unemployment and workers are hard to come by. But they will be out because they are sick, because they have long-term disability or sadly they have passed."
(34:40)
"I am not suggesting that the COVID deaths are under-counted - but the pandemic related deaths indicate much larger death rates among working age people than simply COVID on the death certificate would imply.
"So what we are seeing is that people get COVID, they kinda recover, and then they die from some sort of disease mechanism that was impacted by the fact that they got COVID in the first place.
"So we are seeing this massive number of deaths - and it's across the industry, its not just OneAmerica numbers, this is consistent across every carrier in every state that does business in this industry.
"So we would say that the pandemic-related deaths are much larger than what you are seeing in the news as the official, specific COVID deaths, where COVID was the proximate cause of death on the death certificate.
"So it's a much, much larger number than that.
"We've got 40 to 46% up just in the 3rd quarter alone from the Delta wave."
"So what we are seeing is that people get COVID, they kinda recover, and then they die from some sort of disease mechanism that was impacted by the fact that they got COVID in the first place."
Wow. He is totally blind to what is going on. At least that's what it seems like.
Indeed. I think Scott Davison is a very substantial, intelligent, hard-working and well-meaning CEO. However, he has not considered what many here consider - that the "vaccines", by programming cells anywhere in our body - including in the epithelial cells which line the capillaries (in which which red blood cells just squeeze through) - to produce viral spike proteins sticking out of the cells' plasma membranes, for the express purpose of giving the immune system target practice, which will result in the cell's destruction, might be causing a lot more harm than is currently widely recognised.
Thank you for these comments. The questions raised and data analysis are first-rate. Please feel free to email me at marybethpf@aol.com. This is an issue that must be addressed by the CDC and other public health authorities.
Hi Mary Beth, a few of us have been tracking the excess non-CV mortality by age and place of death for some time. Frankly, I'm surprised it took insurance so long to see the signal. It was clear a year-and-a-half ago. The same patter is going on U25 as well. On Twitter, look for @EthicalSkeptic and myself @ProfessorAkston. I sent you an email with some links.
So why is no-one giving stats on how many of the deceased are "vaxxed " and "unvaxxed" and why is no-one asking?
The presentation was made on December 30th by the Chamber of Commerce and Indiana Hospital Association. I watched the video from minute 21 where the CEO from this report prefaced his mortality data with his own business concern that he needs to get his employees back in the office, but the vaccinated employees don't want to share space with unvaccinated employees.
I've seen some speculation on line that the death increase has some correlation with vaccine rollout and might be a cause. If true, the insurance guy could be making a huge mistake since he suggested they're considering hiking rates for businesses located in low vaccinated counties. He also made it clear that his company is pushing for a fully vaccinated staff and it seemed that the company was jumping to the conclusion that unvaccinated people were the only possible source for this increase - that could end up being a very costly error!
Regarding the data, if you remove all the deaths attributed by the CDC as covid related, you still have a 20% increase in NON-COVID DEATHS for the working age population of their census. It's truly remarkable that we haven't launched an all-out assault on insurance data to either corroborate or contradict what would potentially be the largest mass casualty this country, and possibly the world, has ever seen!
Might be heart attacks and strokes post-CoVax shot.
THIS ⬆️⬆️⬆️
just FYI -- I have a post addressing the increased working-age mortality (I'm a life actuary):
https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-for-working-age
This is a great post, Mary Pat. Thank you. How do you get to trends in things like stroke and heart attack? Given the delay in finalizing causes that you discuss, there's still a lot we don't know about the third-quarter increase in deaths. I would like more on the "weird-looking" OD trends...
Let's recall that Mr Davison, the CEO of the life insurance company did also say that they were seeing at first, an increase in short term disability, then an increase in claims for long term disability.
https://youtu.be/5AOHrZHG5L0?t=1391
The drug OD hypothesis may explain some of the deaths but let's recall that the deaths AND the disability claims that Davison is talking about is for people that work for companies that have group insurance benefits. Mostly good paying jobs I would think.
I would also assume that this cohort of people would have a generally lower rate of opioid addiction.
Does drug OD cause short term and long term disability?
The data needed is: For ALL group insurance claims for death benefits AND disability, both long term and short term, what is the vaxx status of the claimant?
Overlay that data and you will have your answer.
Davison also said they were going to hike premiums for employers based in counties with LOW VAXX RATES! He's already made up his mind that this is because of people who refuse the shot!!
Perhaps not surprising Davison followed the (uninformed) battle cry: "It's a pandemic of the unvaxxed!" It's good to pull this data apart 6 ways to Sunday, since there is so much poor and manipulated data out there, including in CDC's data about COVID deaths and VAERS under-reporting, and more.
Does anyone know if a plan has been put in place to conduct post mortems for people who die within a certain time of getting vaccinated ? Anywhere in the world ?
Anyone that dies within two weeks of getting the second shot is considered to be unvaccinated. I'm not aware of anyone or any agency that is distinguishing vaxed, unvaxed, and partially vaxed.
Other countries are doing this, but it either hasn’t occurred to our “experts”
here in the US or they are complicit OR Fauci has offered them $9million grants
like he did in order to squelch the “rumors” that this was a Gain of Function/not natural virus. And YES,
we have the
receipts! The previous CDC director whom they’ve kept
muzzled thus far, is now unmuzzled, in a big way.
They should be checking on people actually dying from complications of Covid because THAT is what is happening.
Post mortems would provide more accurate data on what percentage of people had died from vaccine injury . We could then make an informed decision on whether or not to suspend vaccinations .
The spike protein is in both the virus and the shots. We shouldn't be too quick to blame the virus for everything, when the shots produce orders of magnitude more of the toxic spikes...The spikes produce a number of similar symptoms, including blood clots, in both virus and vax.
It sure didn’t look like this is the case, Truthseeker. Seek further, and you will be amazed.
The overwhelming majority of people who die from drug overdoses are not life or health insured. Mary Pat's tables are not what the Indiana based insurance company is drawing from.
Some of the unhappiest people I know work in high paying jobs with great benefits. They get locked in a golden set of handcuffs that they can't get out of because they want the lifestyle that high pay brings but it doesn't make them happy. also, they can afford the drugs. I work at a place like that with 90 employees. We just had a 30something die of exactly this, OD.
But didn’t they have these jobs and golden handcuffs prior to the surge of excess deaths in 2021? And do you not think, since there is a 140-145% jump in EXCESS deaths including heart, cancer, blood clots and even accidents that there is some other driving force besides work burdens? Like, idk, maybe some poorly studied, long term data-deficient, highly
controversial medical treatment given to millions? Maybe?
I could not comment on your post (non-subscriber) so I will post here.
The excess mortality has been observed in Germany and many countries. A November German study shows a correlation of +.31 in excess mortality and vaccination rate observed in 16 countries in the study.
Also, your hypothesis is just that without vaccination status of the diseased. Why is no one interested to find out including our CDC and FDA? Inconvenient truth?
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/new-study-from-germany-confirms-higher
El Gato Malo just posted this piece on all-cause mortality in northern Europe. Again, vaccination appears to drive higher excess mortality -
why are northern european (except for sweden) all cause deaths up in 2021 vs 2020?
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/why-are-northern-european-except
Thanks for the informative and empathetic post Mary Pat!
Genuine health and well-being at both the individual and societal level is influenced by an indescribably complex web of behaviors, beliefs and circumstances. It really is sad how much many of us have narrowed our focus these past 2 years to looking at public health through the lens of one tiny little virus. In both 2020 and 2021, overdose deaths outnumbered death from COVID-19 where I live, (British Columbia), and I, like you, know this problem won't end with the pandemic.
I really think it's time to reel back much of the collective energy we're spending locking down the economy or hunting down the last handfuls of "vaccine hesitant" people, and re-deploy it toward solving the countless other larger problems we've all but ignored the past 2 years.
Excellent, objective and straightforward article that should be read, considered and acted upon. Thank you.
yes - awesome analysis.
COVID, and Overdoses need to be counted before jumping to conclusions that its vaccine related health issues.
Also this pandemic has delayed health treatments and preventative care, increased depression, lowered physical activity, increase overeating, gaining weight, higher alcohol consumption, violent crime, and even speeding in cars. All of these also increased in 20/21
Vaccines increasing heart attacks, strokes and cancer. Etc ? That’s my theory…for most of the increase
These deaths affect OneAmerica's bottom line directly, so internally they are digging and I suspect they know what's causing them. I also suspect that they know good and well that the vaccines are not protecting anyone. If so, they will never say so publicly. As Dr. Malone said, this is a huge public policy failure. OneAmerica is a large corporation with a whole cadre of lawyers. They're not going to tell us the whole truth.
Keep an eye out maybe on the Australian data. Interesting as very little Covid so that effect is controlled for. Not seeing much of a signal for the moment, and what there is seems to be mostly cancer and dementia. Only consolidated through end October though. You can download a breakdown by age group, from what I can see the excess mortality is largely in the 65+ group. I suppose it may be imputable to missed cancer diagnoses, dementia due to loneliness, and inactivity. Not that that isn't bad enough (and precisely affects the same groups as are vulnerable to Covid). It would be good though to have a couple more months of data.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release
For the death rate to go up by 40% in that age group, tells me that it's probably linked to the vaccine !
Dr Malone alluded to this because of vaccine mandates in the workplace
Mary Beth, but that is not the conclusion if you watch Scott Davison' video. At the point where he started talking about premium load, he was hinting that they are blaming it on the unjabbed. "Most of us in the industry are starting to target and to add a premium loads onto employers that are based in counties that have low vaccination rates. It's just typically what we would do for underwriting when you have a risk factor like that." I think he has his blinders on and drew the wrong conclusion, but until they realize the common denominator, I am afraid they will continue to blame and penalize the wrong party.
"The high death rate from OneAmerica data compared to general population data in Indiana show that heavily vaccinated workers are dying from the vaccines and/or a lack of early COVID treatment....We have a massive failure of public heath policy in the USA." - Dr. Robert W. Malone, MD, 1/3/22
(My 2nd comment.) Does 50,600 sound like the correct number of COVID deaths in the USA in the 18 to 64 age group for Q3? No:
US cumulative COVID-19 deaths at: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states shows 2021-06-01 594,357 and 2021-09-01 642,908 = 51,449 for all ages, Q3.
So this 50,600 figure does not even resemble the Q3 deaths for 18 to 64 year olds. I don't have a quick way of determining this, but the figure of 25% of deaths being in this age group sounds reasonable. Guesstimating 12,750 deaths in that age group, than the figures Mary Beth Pfeiffer quoted do look more alarming, and compatible with the video statements of Scott Davison. (BTW, he gave me the impression that he knows what he is talking about.)
(In the top graph at: https://www.usmortality.com, turn off Smooth and turn on Maximize. Using the cursor on the graph, the excess deaths per week peak at 19,419 on week 35 at the end of August to start of September.)
In the figures apparently supplied by OneAmerica, 250,000 18-64 deaths in Q4 exceeds the 2019 figure of 172,000 by 78,000, which is 45.3% higher. So far, this accords with Scott Davison's statements.
My guesstimate of 12,750 COVID-19 deaths is just 16.3% of this 78,000. That accords with his statements too - that the official COVID-19 deaths are a small fraction of the supposed 78,000 excess deaths in this quarter in this age range.
Some of the remaining ~~83% of these 78,000 deaths are surely due to longer-term effects of COVID-19, but it would be surprising if this was more than a small fraction of the ~~12,750 deaths. This leaves a large unexplained gap. Scott Davison was not thinking at all that these might be caused by vaccination. He seems to assume that they are mainly a result of severe COVID-19 - and severe symptoms without death scales in rough proportion to deaths in any population. He and his underwriting colleagues assume, not unreasonably, that deaths and so severity and later deaths are in inverse proportion to vaccination rates. (In the criminally egregious absence of proper 50 ng/mL 25-hydroxvitamin D levels and banning of early treatments, vaccination does very significantly reduce severity and deaths.)
What we really need is age-stratified death information, ideally with individual vaccination and prior COVID-19 illness data. That may not be available, so we might be able to get monthly excess deaths, in some band of ages, and then subtract official COVID-19 deaths, to leave the unexplained deaths we suspect were caused in large part by vaccination. Then we need to get that data, by month, ideally state-by-state, and see how it correlates with 1st, 2nd and subsequent COVID-19 vaccine injections.
Please remember that these so-called vaccines, even if they worked as well and were as safe as claimed, would still be a distant third best way to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, after population wide vitamin D supplementation to attain at least the 50 ng/ml 25-hydroxyvitamin D level the immune system needs to function (most people have 1/2 to 1/10th of this) and, in second place, multiple early treatments. Please see https://nutritionmatters.substack.com and https://vitamindstopscovid.info .
You may find this data analysis paper useful...
https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=107&name=2021_10_25_nature_of_the_covid_era_public_health_disaster_in_the_usa_from_all_cause_mortality_and_socio_geo_economic_and_climatic_data
I suppose these excess claims are covered to a large extent by reinsurance. It will be interesting to see what the big global reinsurers have to say in their annual filings because they won't be able to offset losses given that this is a symmetric shock in all relevant jurisdictions.
"During the third quarter of 2021, the CDC reported approximately 50,600 deaths in the 18-64 age group were due to COVID, while they reported 252,000 deaths overall during that same period for the 18-64 age group.
The CDC defines only those individuals where COVID is listed on the death certificate as a cause/contributing factor in death in that total, but does not include other deaths which may be linked to co-morbidities or other COVID-19 influenced factors (delay in seeking medical care, inability to access medical care, etc.)."
If someone has Covid, then dies from a blood clot caused in the aftermath of Covid 2 month later, that is not listed as a Covid death. So in other words, more of the deaths were probably from Covid than counted. I work in a hospital and I see this every day.
how do you know they are not dying from vaccine related blood clotting?
Q4 was a slight decrease from Q3 in my sampling from obituary numbers, so I wonder if that will hold true with the actual numbers.
The video is at https://fox59.com/news/coronavirus/indiana-chamber-of-commerce-and-indiana-hospital-association-to-hold-news-conference-on-covid-19-situations/ (Thanks to Mathew Crawford for linking to it: https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/why-are-non-covid-deaths-at-historic .)
A graph of US excess deaths is at: https://www.usmortality.com/excess-zscore, but there is no breakdown by age group.
Scott Davison (23:10) said:
"One of our business is we offer group life and disability insurance to employers. We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have ever seen in the history of this business. Not just at OneAmerica - the data is consistent across every player in that business.
"This is primarily working age people, 18 to 64, that are in employers like those employers on the screen here.
"What we saw just in 3rd quarter - and we saw it continue into 4th quarter - is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic.
"Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a 3 sigma [3 standard deviations] or a 1 in 200 year would be a 10% increase over pre-pandemic. So 40% is just unheard of.
"So what the data is showing us is that the deaths which are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working age people from the pandemic. It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge, numbers.
"We are also seeing an uptick in disability claims. At first it was short-term disability claims and now we are seeing long-term disability, whether it is long-COVID, whether people haven't been able to get the healthcare they need because the hospitals were overrun.
"For OneAmercia, we expect the costs of this will be well over 100 million dollars - and this is our smallest business. So it is having a huge impact on that.
"Those costs will trickle towards other employers, because premiums are starting to go up - so it will cost more for employers. Most of us in the industry are starting to target and add premium loads on employers who are based in counties which have low vaccination rates. Its typically what we would in underwriting when we have a risk factor like that.
"There is also going to be higher costs on employers due to greater absences, particularly at a time when there is low unemployment and workers are hard to come by. But they will be out because they are sick, because they have long-term disability or sadly they have passed."
(34:40)
"I am not suggesting that the COVID deaths are under-counted - but the pandemic related deaths indicate much larger death rates among working age people than simply COVID on the death certificate would imply.
"So what we are seeing is that people get COVID, they kinda recover, and then they die from some sort of disease mechanism that was impacted by the fact that they got COVID in the first place.
"So we are seeing this massive number of deaths - and it's across the industry, its not just OneAmerica numbers, this is consistent across every carrier in every state that does business in this industry.
"So we would say that the pandemic-related deaths are much larger than what you are seeing in the news as the official, specific COVID deaths, where COVID was the proximate cause of death on the death certificate.
"So it's a much, much larger number than that.
"We've got 40 to 46% up just in the 3rd quarter alone from the Delta wave."
I will write more in a later comment.
"So what we are seeing is that people get COVID, they kinda recover, and then they die from some sort of disease mechanism that was impacted by the fact that they got COVID in the first place."
Wow. He is totally blind to what is going on. At least that's what it seems like.
Indeed. I think Scott Davison is a very substantial, intelligent, hard-working and well-meaning CEO. However, he has not considered what many here consider - that the "vaccines", by programming cells anywhere in our body - including in the epithelial cells which line the capillaries (in which which red blood cells just squeeze through) - to produce viral spike proteins sticking out of the cells' plasma membranes, for the express purpose of giving the immune system target practice, which will result in the cell's destruction, might be causing a lot more harm than is currently widely recognised.
I wrote up a better version of my two comments here, in update U11, at https://nutritionmatters.substack.com/p/omicron-rolling-updates .
That doesn't happen.
Correction: that's not SUPPOSED to happen.
Similar data out of Munich Re Life US to the OneAmerica trends:
Examining the Impact of COVID on Group Life Underwriting
https://munichre.com/us-life/en/perspectives/group-and-living-benefits/examining-impact-covid-group-life-underwriting.html